Monthly Outlook

A chillier couple of days are possible later next week before milder and unsettled conditions develop after mid-November.

Chillier chances might evolve later in the month but that is rather speculative at the moment.

Increasing chances of some rain this weekend

Wednesday and Thursday will have high pressure centred near or just north of Scotland, inducing easterly flows across most of the UK. It will be rather breezy, especially across southern England where winds will be fresh at times. There will be a few bright spells but a lot of cloud with some patchy drizzle or light rain possible, but many places are going to be dry for most of the time.

There may be a higher chance of rain across far southern and south-western counties of England on Thursday. Scotland should have calmer conditions, which will lead to patches of fog.

Temperatures should hover around the early November average, but it will feel chillier in places exposed to those easterly winds or where any fog persists through the daytime.

On Friday and into the weekend, high pressure should drift eastwards and become centred over southern Scandinavia. Friday should be rather cloudy but mainly dry with the brisk winds easing, but a little rain may be possible in places, chiefly across southern and south-western England. In Scotland there may be banks of fog again.

As the weekend wears on, a shallow low pressure system may slowly push in from the south, with outbreaks of showery rain gradually spreading northwards. Temperatures should remain close to or just a shade above normal.

Unsettled, with chillier possibilities later

The first half of next week is most likely to see a couple of low pressure circulations and frontal systems crossing the UK. These should bring occasionally wet and windy weather but also an uptick in temperatures as some milder Atlantic-sourced air moves in. It's possible that England and Wales will be wetter than Scotland and Northern Ireland, depending on the exact track of these systems.

A similar broad pattern could last into the second half of next week. However, there are two competing scenarios, and it is almost equally possible that as low pressure systems depart a high pressure ridge pops up in the eastern Atlantic, and this would cause colder north to north-westerly flows to develop for a couple of days. Conditions would become drier and sunnier aside from showers blowing across windward areas, which could be wintry at higher elevations. The outcome has low confidence at the moment but should become clearer in future updates. By the end of the week, we may be getting back into milder west to south-westerly flows as high pressure sinks southwards.

Potentially drier in the north than the south

Guidance becomes a bit more consistent past the middle of November. The most likely pattern shows continental high pressure building, with low pressure systems developing in the central Atlantic and tracking mainly to the west and north of the UK. Associated frontal systems should move across the country, but weaken as they get farther south and eastwards. As a result although all areas should see at least a little rain at times, the northern and western UK should be wetter than the south and east. Winds will strengthen at times as well, but with mainly west to south-westerly flows it should be milder or warmer than average.

The last week of November has competing configurations, so it's very uncertain what the outcome will be. There are signs of a continuation of unsettled regimes, with low pressure systems indicated, perhaps tracking farther south towards the UK and bringing widely wetter and windier conditions. However, there is a chance of high pressure building more strongly to the north of the UK, with possibilities of some drier and chillier conditions before the end of the month, more likely across Scotland.

Current disturbances to the stratospheric polar vortex might eventually have a role to play. If any effects were to filter down through the troposphere to the surface, it might mean increasing colder risks more expansively but that is very tenuous at the moment.

In Friday's update we will see if there is any clearer sign of a chillier couple of days later next week and of any late-November colder spell possibly developing. We will also be able to take a first peek into early December.